Unlikely Events

  • Bad beat – Term in poker to describe a hand in which a player with what appear to be strong cards nevertheless loses
  • Black swan event – an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight
  • Butterfly effect – Idea that small causes can have large effects
  • Dark horse – Previously less known person or thing that emerges to prominence
  • Deus ex machina – Contrived device to resolve the plot of a dramatic work
  • Domino effect – Cumulative effect produced when one event sets off a chain of other events
  • Dragon king theory – Event that is both extremely large in effect and of unique origins
  • Grey swan – an event that is known and possible to happen, but which is assumed to be unlikely to occur
  • Holy grail distribution – Probability distribution with a positive mean and a right fat tail
  • Kurtosis risk – Term in decision theory; a measure of the tailedness (how often outliers occur) of a distribution
  • Long tail – Feature of some statistical distributions, where there are many occurrences far from the head or central part of the distribution.
  • Miracle – Event not explicable by natural or scientific laws
  • Rare events – event that occurs with low frequency, often with a widespread effect which might destabilize systems
  • Reasonably foreseeable – Failure to exercise the care that a reasonably prudent person would exercise in like circumstances
  • Tail risk – Risk of rare events
  • Technological singularity – Hypothetical point in time when technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible
  • Wild card (foresight) – in futures studies, a low-probability, large-effect event